Monday, August 15, 2011

Palin Tops The Charts in Colorado!

Take a look at these favorability ratings from a PPP survey of Colorado Republican primary voters:

                    Favorable/Unfavorable (Net)
Palin             63/31 (+32) (!)
Perry            44/18 (+26)
Bachmann   49/30 (+19)
Romney       52/34 (+18)
Cain             37/20 (+17)

Tea Party     73/15 (+58)

Overall, Romney and Perry are tied for first at 20% each, while Bachmann at 12% and Palin at 11% are essentially tied for third. However, the major difference between Palin and the others is that she has not announced her candidacy yet. As any reputable pollster can tell you, favorability ratings are more reliable early on in a race, as they are good predictors of whose support will grow when things get serious.

And now, permit me to step on a few toes.

Recent polls show that Bachmann, despite winning Iowa, is falling in polls nationally. I attribute this to a series of missteps, including her inability to explain previous comments on Meet The Press and her failure to match the retail politicking skills of Perry in Iowa. Both Don Lemon of CNN and other attendees at her events have noticed her brusque behavior. Maybe it's the headaches, but it's not making for a good campaign. *ducks the rotten tomatoes*

No, PPP did not ask about favorability ratings for Ron Paul. It is not some conspiracy to keep Paul down. Nobody is out to get him. It is, rather, the general understanding that while Paul has a very vocal and loyal base that is able to beat anybody when it comes to organizing to win polls, his support does not translate outside that base. It remains to be seen how much Paul can mainstream himself, but the comments on Iran in the debate probably killed his chances in the primary. (Please don't shoot the messenger.)

So IMHO, the race is now a two way race between Romney and Perry, with Palin a dark horse that could emerge to turn things on their head a bit later. It will be interesting to watch how the Romney and Perry camps interact going forward.

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